The Conference on “Forecasting the Trend of Strategic Autonomy in the Asia-Pacific Region by 2030”

On the afternoon of October 14, 2024, the Diplomatic Academy successfully organized a scientific conference on "Forecasting the Trend of Strategic Autonomy in the Asia-Pacific Region by 2030."

The conference was part of the Ministry-level Research Program "Forecasting Vietnam's Foreign Environment by 2030" (Code CT03-BNG/24-25) (the Program). It aimed to gather expert and scholarly opinions on the possibility of strategic autonomy becoming a significant trend in the Asia-Pacific region by 2030, as well as to clarify the key aspects of this trend, specifically: (i) The concept of strategic autonomy; (ii) Factors influencing the trend of strategic autonomy; (iii) The multidimensional impacts on Vietnam; and (iv) Policy implications for Vietnam.

The conference was chaired by Dr. Vu Le Thai Hoang, Director of the Institute for Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies and Head of the Research Program. The speakers at the conference were prominent scholars, current and former leaders in the field of international relations: Lieutenant General, Dr. Do Le Chi, former Director of Institute of Public Security Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security; Major General, Prof. Dr. Nguyen Hong Quan, former Deputy Director of the Institute of Defense Strategy, Ministry of National Defense; Dr. Dao Ngoc Bau, Director of the Institute of International Relations, Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics; and Dr. Pham Sy Thanh, Director of the China Centre for Economic and Strategic Studies (CESS).

In addition, the conference attracted the attention and participation of many renowned international relations researchers, ambassadors, and leaders from various departments inside and outside the Ministry of Foreign Affairs—individuals with extensive experience in foreign affairs and international relations, both in theory and practice.

In his opening remarks, Dr. Vu Le Thai Hoang emphasized that strategic forecasting is a crucial and ongoing task of Vietnam’s diplomacy. In the current world with rapid and complex global and regional developments, forecasting presents a major challenge, even for experienced diplomats. He affirmed that “strategic autonomy” is not just an issue for small countries but also impacts larger ones and has the potential to significantly affect regional and global landscape.

After more than two hours, with five presentations delivered, the participants focused on: (i) Outlining five key relationships and conflicts emerging in the current international relations system and their connection to the trend of strategic autonomy; (ii) Analyzing and clarifying strategic autonomy policies in specific fields, especially in defence-security and science-technology; and (iii) Proposing policy implications for medium-sized countries like Vietnam, highlighting the need to concentrate on promoting autonomy in key strategic areas to optimize resources and avoid dispersing efforts.

The subsequent discussion session was lively, with nearly 10 comments and debates from scholars and researchers in the spirit of objective and constructive scientific criticism. Prominent points included: (i) Clarifying the concept of “strategic autonomy” in comparison with Vietnam's foreign policy of “independence and self-reliance”; (ii) Lessons for Vietnam from analyzing other cases both within and outside the region, such as Cambodia, Singapore, the EU, and France; and (iii) Balancing international diversification and multi-directionalism with strategic autonomy.

In his concluding remarks, Dr. Vu Le Thai Hoang affirmed that research is a long-term process, where even the same term can be understood differently by different people, giving life to scientific inquiry. Terms, as they develop in practice, are sure to evolve, and we must continuously research and clarify them. On behalf of the Program’s research team, Dr. Vu Le Thai Hoang thanked the delegates for their open and candid sharing, promising to take their contributions seriously and reflect them clearly in the project.

Some images from the conference: